Prognosis of HIV/AIDS

About prognosis: The 'prognosis' of HIV/AIDS usually refers to the likely outcome of HIV/AIDS. The prognosis of HIV/AIDS may include the duration of HIV/AIDS, chances of complications of HIV/AIDS, probable outcomes, prospects for recovery, recovery period for HIV/AIDS, survival rates, death rates, and other outcome possibilities in the overall prognosis of HIV/AIDS. Naturally, such forecast issues are by their nature unpredictable.

Prognosis for HIV/AIDS: The prognosis for individuals with AIDS in recent years has improved significantly because of new drugs and treatments, and educational and preventive efforts. ¹
Average life years lost from HIV/AIDS: 35.7 years (SEER); 37.9 for HIV in North Carolina².
Deaths from HIV/AIDS: 15,245 deaths in 2000 (NIAID); 14,802 deaths reported in USA 1999 (NVSR Sep 2001)
Complications: see complications of HIV/AIDS

Prognosis of HIV/AIDS discussion: Researchers have observed two general patterns of illness in HIV-infected children. About 20 percent of children develop serious disease in the first year of life; most of these children die by age 4 years.

The remaining 80 percent of infected children have a slower rate of disease progression, many not developing the most serious symptoms of AIDS until school entry or even adolescence. A recent report from a large European registry of HIV-infected children indicated that half of the children with perinatally acquired HIV disease were alive at age 9. Another study, of 42 perinatally HIV-infected children who survived beyond 9 years of age, found about one-quarter of the children to be asymptomatic with relatively intact immune systems. ³

Women whose HIV infections are detected early and receive appropriate treatment survive as long as infected men. There are several studies that have shown HIV-infected women to have shorter survival times than men. Women may be less likely than men to be diagnosed early, which may account for shorter survival times.

In an analysis of several studies involving more than 4,500 people with HIV infection, women were one-third more likely than men to die within the study period. The investigators could not definitively identify the reasons for excess mortality among women in this study, but they speculated that poorer access to or use of health care resources among HIV-infected women as compared to men, domestic violence, homelessness, and lack of social supports for women may have been important factors.⁴

Older people diagnosed with HIV/AIDS do not live as long as younger people who have the virus. It is important to get tested early. The earlier you begin medical treatment, the better your chances for living longer.⁵

Footnotes:
1. excerpt from NINDS Neurological Manifestations of AIDS Information Page: NINDS
2. Years of Potential Life Lost in North Carolina, NCMJ March/April 2002, Volume 63, Number 2
3. excerpt from Backgrounder - HIV Infection in Infants and Children: NIAID
4. excerpt from HIV Infection in Women, NIAID Fact Sheet: NIAID
5. excerpt from HIV, AIDS, and Older People - Age Page - Health Information: NIA

Last revision: April 2, 2003